Donald Trump: Weekly window, Oct 25, 2026
Polymarket What will Trump say this week? (October 19 - October 25)
Coverage
10 known appearances7 of 10 known appearances transcribed Window: Oct 19, 2026 to Oct 25, 2026. Counts: spoken only (posts do not count). 0 own posts by @realDonaldTrump. Counts are lower bounds until every appearance is transcribed.
- Oct 19, 2026 Donald Trump: Midterm Rally in Kansas transcript pending
- Oct 19, 2026 Donald Trump: Announcement transcript pending
- Oct 20, 2026 Donald Trump: Midterm Rally in North Carolina transcript pending
- Oct 20, 2026 Donald Trump: Announcement Speaker-labelled captions
- Oct 21, 2026 Donald Trump: Midterm Rally in South Carolina Captions · machine-attributed
- Oct 21, 2026 Donald Trump: Roundtable Speaker-labelled captions
- Oct 22, 2026 Donald Trump: Midterm Rally in Iowa Captions · machine-attributed
- Oct 23, 2026 Donald Trump: Midterm Rally in Florida Captions · machine-attributed
- Oct 24, 2026 Donald Trump: Midterm Rally in Georgia Captions · machine-attributed
- Oct 25, 2026 Donald Trump: Rally in Michigan Captions · machine-attributed
Markets
16 words · 10 settled yes · our count agreed on 7 of 8- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genius / Elon / Musk | Yes | 26 | 30 | ✓ | 43%n=125 from settlement history | – |
| Brother / Sister | Yes | 18 | 20 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Greenland | Yes | 10 | 10 | ✓ | 40%n=62 from settlement history | – |
| Six Seven | Yes | 6 | 10 | ✓ | 38%n=82 from settlement history | – |
| Pirate | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Apple | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 51%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Trump Ocean / Trump Strait | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 45%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Jumbotron | Yes | – | 0 | – | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Moon / UFO / UAP | Yes | – | 0 | – | 44%n=66 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire / Uranium | Yes | – | 0 | – | 16%n=176 from settlement history | – |
| Strategic / Strategy | No | 1 | 1 | ✗ | 53%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Vanilla / Ice Cream | No | – | 0 | – | 53%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Flying Car / Roadster | No | – | 0 | – | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Four More Years | No | – | 0 | – | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Allah | No | – | 0 | – | 40%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency | No | – | 0 | – | 12%n=58 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 26, 2026 06:13 UTC.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-this-week-october-19-october-25-20261025 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP