Donald Trump: Remarks, Mar 31, 2025
Polymarket What will Trump say during today's executive order signing?
Markets
12 words · 6 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Putin | Yes | 55%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| China 3+ times | Yes | 42%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 37%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Third term | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Apple | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| NATO | Yes | 25%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Greenland | No | 46%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Fake news | No | 41%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | No | 34%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff 20+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 18%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 7%n=72 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-todays-executive-order-signing · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP