Donald Trump: Monthly window, Feb 1, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say in January?
Coverage
1 known appearances1 of 1 known appearance transcribed Window: Jan 1, 2026 to Feb 1, 2026. Counts: spoken + his own written posts. 0 own posts by @realDonaldTrump.
Markets
25 words · 18 settled yes · our count agreed on 6 of 6- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greenland | Yes | 8 | 14 | ✓ | 44%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| DEI / Woke | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Gulf of America | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 61%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 46%n=49 from settlement history | – |
| Windmill | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 52%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Sleepy Joe | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 72%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | Yes | – | 0 | – | 72%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Pelosi | Yes | – | 0 | – | 68%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Trump Derangement Syndrome | Yes | – | 0 | – | 63%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Predict / Prediction | Yes | – | 0 | – | 58%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| TrumpRX / TrumpRX.gov | Yes | – | 0 | – | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| UFC | Yes | – | 0 | – | 53%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Moscow | Yes | – | 0 | – | 49%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Newscum | Yes | – | 0 | – | 49%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Autism | Yes | – | 0 | – | 46%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | Yes | – | 0 | – | 32%n=54 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | Yes | – | 0 | – | 27%n=220 from settlement history | – |
| Fat shot / Ozempic | Yes | – | 0 | – | 26%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Turning Point | No | – | 0 | – | 63%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Nick Shirley | No | – | 0 | – | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nine War | No | – | 0 | – | 37%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Third Term | No | – | 0 | – | 35%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Stimulus | No | – | 0 | – | 34%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Taylor Swift | No | – | 0 | – | 30%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis | No | – | 0 | – | 24%n=19 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26FEB01 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP