Donald Trump: Remarks, Jun 16, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say at his Meeting with Mark Carney?
Markets
26 words · 0 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Russia | No | 62%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Steel | No | 59%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Border | No | 55%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Golden Dome | No | 53%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Pipeline | No | 50%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Trudeau | No | 48%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Defense | No | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Governor | No | 44%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| USMCA | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Lumber | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Water | No | 41%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Aluminum | No | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| 51st | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Alberta | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Car | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Dairy | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Elbows Up | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Keystone | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Moose | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| XL | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Greenland | No | 37%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl | No | 37%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| NAFTA | No | 37%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Budget | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Oil | No | 34%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | No | 33%n=11 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:05 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXDJTCANG7-25DEC31 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP