Donald Trump: Remarks, Mar 17, 2026
Polymarket What will Trump say during bilateral events with the Taoiseach?
Markets
29 words · 18 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York | Yes | 58%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Military / Troops | Yes | 54%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 8+ times | Yes | 53%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Soleimani | Yes | 53%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Friend of mine | Yes | 53%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | Yes | 52%n=50 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear 3+ times | Yes | 52%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliterating | Yes | 49%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 46%n=128 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 5+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Heritage / Culture | Yes | 44%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Biden / Obama 5+ times | Yes | 42%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| 250 / 250th | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ireland / Irish 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pride / Proud | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ballroom / Arch | Yes | 28%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| UK / United Kingdom | Yes | 27%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Drone | Yes | 26%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Epic Fury | No | 48%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Peace in the Middle East | No | 43%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Ayatollah | No | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff 5+ times | No | 36%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Daddy | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hormuz | No | 34%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Greenland | No | 33%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| Pipeline / Road | No | 32%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Six Seven | No | 27%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Bibi / Netanyahu | No | 22%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 9%n=309 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-bilateral-events-with-the-taoiseach · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP