Donald Trump: Appearance, Jan 27, 2026
Polymarket What will Trump say in Iowa on January 27?
Markets
22 words · 7 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear | Yes | 61%n=92 from settlement history | – |
| America / American 15+ times | Yes | 51%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| UFC / Dana White | Yes | 47%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| 401(k) | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hell 8+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kamala | Yes | 42%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Egg | Yes | 42%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Greenland | No | 50%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Insane asylum | No | 49%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Stupid | No | 47%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 30+ times | No | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Corn | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Bedrock | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Biden 15+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Davos / World Economic Forum | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hog | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stagflation | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Death tax | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Susie / Wiles | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tariff / Inflation 20+ times | No | 43%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Midterm Election | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China / Russia 15+ times | No | 38%n=4 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-in-iowa-on-january-27 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP