Donald Trump: Remarks, Jan 14, 2026
Polymarket What will Trump say during Signing Ceremony on January 14?
Markets
19 words · 4 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ford / Detroit / Car Plant | Yes | 47%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Kennedy / Autism | Yes | 45%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Thank you 12+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Greenland | Yes | 36%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 10+ times | No | 63%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 52%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | 52%n=78 from settlement history | – |
| Fat | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fake News | No | 43%n=47 from settlement history | – |
| God 2+ times | No | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 3+ times | No | 41%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Women's Sport | No | 41%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Middle Finger | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Most Favored Nation | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Paid Agitator / Protestor | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Transgender | No | 41%n=54 from settlement history | – |
| Japan / Mexico / Canada 3+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Maria / Nobel | No | 22%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 6%n=228 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-signing-ceremony-on-january-14 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP