Donald Trump: Remarks, Apr 24, 2025
Polymarket What will Trump say during events with Norway PM on April 24?
Markets
16 words · 4 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine 3+ times | Yes | 41%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| King | Yes | 41%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Prize | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Greenland | Yes | 36%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Joe / Biden 5+ times | No | 53%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | No | 43%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| COVID / China virus | No | 40%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 10+ times | No | 39%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Fish | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Investment | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Norway 7+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff 5+ times | No | 38%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Zelenskyy | No | 32%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| El Salvador | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Pope | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 5%n=80 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-events-with-norway-pm-on-april-24 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP