Donald Trump: Remarks, Mar 3, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during his Bilateral Meeting with Germany?
Polymarket What will Trump say during events with Chancellor Merz on March 3?
Markets
48 words · 24 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear | Yes | 58%n=112 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 58%n=91 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 58%n=130 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 55%n=191 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 54%n=60 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 53%n=119 from settlement history | – |
| Midnight Hammer | Yes | 53%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | Yes | 53%n=49 from settlement history | – |
| Eight War | Yes | 52%n=57 from settlement history | – |
| Percent 7+ times | Yes | 50%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | 49%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| Wind / Solar | Yes | 49%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Friend of Mine | Yes | 47%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Peace in the Middle East | Yes | 47%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Israel | Yes | 45%n=52 from settlement history | – |
| Windmill | Yes | 45%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | Yes | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| 5% | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Angela / Merkel | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tariff 6+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Supreme Court | Yes | 37%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | Yes | 37%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Stupid / Low IQ | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| European Union / EU | Yes | 36%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Trillion | No | 66%n=74 from settlement history | – |
| Epic Fury | No | 52%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 49%n=156 from settlement history | – |
| Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration | No | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 46%n=105 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / Border Patrol | No | 44%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | No | 42%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Biden 4+ times | No | 41%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Auto | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Cold / Colder | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ripped / Ripping | No | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| France | No | 39%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Greenland | No | 37%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Uranium | No | 37%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | No | 36%n=61 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | No | 35%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Mog / Mogged / Mogging | No | 35%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Bibi / Netanyahu | No | 33%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Khamenei / Ayatollah | No | 33%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| President Xi | No | 32%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Too Late | No | 31%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Drone | No | 20%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 15%n=289 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-events-with-chancellor-merz-on-march-3 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP