Donald Trump: Interview, Jan 20, 2026
Polymarket What will Trump say during NewsNation interview?
Markets
20 words · 9 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran | Yes | 59%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 54%n=118 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 53%n=84 from settlement history | – |
| Biden 3+ times | Yes | 46%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Stolen / Steal | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China / Tariff / Border 10+ times | Yes | 43%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 7+ times | Yes | 40%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Greenland | Yes | 37%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Hell 2+ times | Yes | 31%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Big Beautiful Bill | No | 61%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Somalia / Somalian | No | 52%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Olympics | No | 49%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Housing / Home | No | 42%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Obliterated / Obliteration | No | 42%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Insurrection Act | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Issue | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Denmark | No | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Killing / Execution | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Kiev | No | 35%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Nobel / Medal | No | 18%n=29 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-newsnation-interview · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP