Donald Trump: Speech, Feb 24, 2026
Polymarket What places will Trump mention during the State of the Union address?
Markets
46 words · 25 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York | Yes | 62%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Washington DC / DC | Yes | 58%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Mexico | Yes | 57%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Minnesota | Yes | 55%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Europe / European | Yes | 53%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Congo | Yes | 53%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| India | Yes | 53%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 52%n=51 from settlement history | – |
| Ethiopia | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Pennsylvania | Yes | 50%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Michigan | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iowa | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Los Angeles | Yes | 49%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| New Orleans | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| North Carolina | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Western Hemisphere | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Russia | Yes | 49%n=51 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | 48%n=46 from settlement history | – |
| West Virginia | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| White House | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Memphis | Yes | 48%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Afghanistan | Yes | 47%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Texas | Yes | 45%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Venezuela | Yes | 44%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| California | Yes | 41%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Gulf of America | No | 59%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| China | No | 55%n=116 from settlement history | – |
| Norway | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Syria | No | 52%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Canada | No | 51%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Panama | No | 49%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Arizona | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Somalia | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Mount McKinley | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nigeria | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| South America / Latin America | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| El Salvador | No | 49%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Georgia | No | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Colombia | No | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Cuba | No | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Portland | No | 48%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Japan | No | 47%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Chicago | No | 46%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Switzerland | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Taiwan | No | 44%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Greenland | No | 43%n=38 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-places-will-trump-mention-during-the-state-of-the-union-address · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP