Donald Trump: Remarks, Apr 8, 2025
Polymarket What will Trump say during NRCC Dinner on April 8?
Markets
20 words · 12 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| China 5+ times | Yes | 46%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Hell 3+ times | Yes | 45%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Gender | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 30+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Pipeline | Yes | 38%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Citizenship | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Job 15+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Popular vote | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Steve / Witkoff | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Beautiful | Yes | 34%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Hamas | Yes | 32%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| God 3+ times | Yes | 31%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Linda / McMahon | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fentanyl | No | 44%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Greenland | No | 41%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| El Salvador | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Panama Canal | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 25%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Bitcoin / Crypto | No | 6%n=76 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-nrcc-dinner-on-april-8 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP