JD Vance: Interview, Jun 16, 2026
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during The View?
Markets
17 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 56%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 54%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | 46%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| 2028 / Campaign | Yes | 45%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 36%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 18%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | No | 54%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 49%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | No | 43%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Marco / Rubio | No | 38%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Hillbilly / Elegy | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iran 5+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hormuz | No | 30%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 28%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | No | 21%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 19%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 13%n=26 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-26JUN16 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP