JD Vance: Remarks, Aug 31, 2026
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during his remarks in Sterling Heights?
Polymarket What will JD Vance say during remarks in Sterling Heights?
Markets
36 words · 13 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime | Yes | 68%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 60%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Hell | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Job 8+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Vote | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Biden | Yes | 54%n=58 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | Yes | 53%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 47%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| God 4+ times | Yes | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 43%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 39%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Ass | Yes | 35%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | Yes | 33%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | No | 62%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | No | 62%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Steel | No | 61%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Far Left | No | 60%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 10+ times | No | 58%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Socialist / Socialism | No | 57%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat 12+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 56%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Small Business | No | 55%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 54%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 53%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Border | No | 50%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacturing | No | 48%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 48%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Economy / Economic | No | 47%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Canada / Canadian | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Data Center | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| General Motors / GM | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff | No | 38%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Made in America / American Made | No | 28%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Working Class / Middle Class | No | 26%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Autism / Autistic | No | 26%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 21%n=37 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-26AUG31 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP