JD Vance: Press conference, Sep 3, 2026
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during his press conference?
Markets
27 words · 18 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | Yes | 61%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | Yes | 55%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | Yes | 54%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | 52%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 50%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 49%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 47%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 45%n=59 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 44%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 44%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacturing | Yes | 43%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | Yes | 43%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Economy / Economic | Yes | 37%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 37%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 35%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| 2028 / Campaign | Yes | 30%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 24%n=46 from settlement history | – |
| Working Class / Middle Class | Yes | 23%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Save America Act | No | 52%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| American Dream | No | 40%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 29%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 5+ times | No | 29%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 28%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Made in America / American Made | No | 27%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 19%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 13%n=24 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-26SEP03 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP