JD Vance: Remarks, Sep 14, 2026
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during his remarks on fraud?
Markets
24 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | Yes | 65%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 59%n=61 from settlement history | – |
| Medicare / Medicaid | Yes | 53%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 50%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 47%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 46%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Taxpayer | Yes | 46%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Food Stamp / SNAP | Yes | 20%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime | No | 73%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | No | 58%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 53%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| Minnesota / Minneapolis | No | 47%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 47%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Economy / Economic | No | 45%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| California | No | 44%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | No | 42%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| 2028 / Campaign | No | 41%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | No | 40%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Working Class / Middle Class | No | 33%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Save America Act | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| ID / Identification | No | 25%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 21%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 19%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 10%n=26 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-26SEP14 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP