JD Vance: Remarks, Sep 17, 2025
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during his visit to Howell, Michigan?
Markets
30 words · 15 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing | Yes | 58%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Family | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Security | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Worker | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Charlie / Kirk | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Democrat | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Election | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Factory / Plant | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Home / Housing | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Overtime | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| UK / United Kingdom | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Wage | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| American Dream | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tax on Tips | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Biden | No | 61%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Energy | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Immigration | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Small Business | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Economy | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 47%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 41%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Border | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Healthcare | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Investment | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Middle Class | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Strong | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trade | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Gas | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Infrastructure | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-25SEP17 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP