JD Vance: Remarks, Oct 30, 2025
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during the Turning Point Tour at Ole Miss?
Markets
22 words · 14 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 60%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Debate | Yes | 58%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 51%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| American Dream | Yes | 47%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Middle East | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Border | Yes | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| College / University | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| America First | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Economy | Yes | 32%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Israel | Yes | 29%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 29%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Free Speech | Yes | 28%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Political Violence | No | 50%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| China | No | 48%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Terror / Terrorist | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Radical Left | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Drug | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Healthcare | No | 26%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Middle Class | No | 26%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Antifa | No | 26%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-25OCT30 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP