JD Vance: Interview, Apr 29, 2026
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during his Fox News interview?
Polymarket What will JD Vance say on the Will Cain show?
Markets
33 words · 9 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 59%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| God | Yes | 55%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Deal | Yes | 51%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud / Scam | Yes | 49%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Charlie / Kirk | Yes | 47%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 43%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rhetoric | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Political Violence | Yes | 36%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Usha | No | 61%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 59%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Pakistan | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | No | 55%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | 54%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Orbán / Hungary | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Election | No | 52%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| California | No | 50%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | No | 44%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Midterm | No | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Social Security | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 40%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 39%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| King | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| King / Queen | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| National Security | No | 34%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| NATO | No | 30%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 27%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 22%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 22%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 19%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 14%n=20 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-26APR29B · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP