JD Vance: Interview, Mar 3, 2026
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during his Fox News interview?
Markets
21 words · 4 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | Yes | 70%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | Yes | 50%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Regime | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Midnight Hammer | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Biden | No | 73%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | No | 69%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Minnesota / Minneapolis | No | 60%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 60%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Congress / Congressional | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Epic Fury | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hormuz | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Khamenei / Ayatollah | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Transition / Revolution | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Uranium | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Protest / Protester | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 33%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 29%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 13%n=17 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-26MAR03 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP