JD Vance: Interview, May 16, 2026
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during his Fox News interview?
Markets
32 words · 14 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 65%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | Yes | 58%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| California | Yes | 57%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Minnesota / Minneapolis | Yes | 56%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 56%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | Yes | 51%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 47%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 42%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 42%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| DOJ / Department of Justice | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | Yes | 40%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Newsom / Newscum | Yes | 40%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Autism / Autistic | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Learing / Shirley | Yes | 28%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| American Dream | No | 58%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Border | No | 47%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Marco / Rubio | No | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Campaign | No | 44%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 44%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacturing | No | 43%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | 42%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Lamborghini | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Healthcare | No | 36%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 34%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| SAVE Act / SAVE America | No | 33%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 31%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | No | 27%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| ID / Identification | No | 23%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 21%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 19%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 17%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 16%n=25 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-26MAY16 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP