JD Vance: Remarks, May 5, 2026
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during his remarks in Des Moines?
Polymarket What will JD Vance say during remarks in Des Moines?
Markets
44 words · 21 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| American Dream | Yes | 65%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | Yes | 59%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Family | Yes | 58%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 56%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Worker | Yes | 53%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 52%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 52%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Minnesota / Minneapolis | Yes | 51%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | Yes | 50%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Campaign | Yes | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 43%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 42%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Community | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fight | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iowa | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Job | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Manufacturing | Yes | 40%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 40%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 31%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Abortion | No | 55%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Usha | No | 49%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| SAVE Act / SAVE America | No | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Bilateral | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bipartisan | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Competitor | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Consensus | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Incumbent | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Racism | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Subsidize | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Transparency | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | No | 40%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | No | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Uranium | No | 31%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Free Speech / Freedom of Speech | No | 26%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| ID / Identification | No | 26%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 23%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 23%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 22%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 22%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Epic Fury | No | 17%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 14%n=22 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-26MAY05 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP