JD Vance: Speech, Feb 5, 2026
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during the Critical Minerals Ministerial?
Markets
14 words · 5 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 74%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Investment / Invested | Yes | 53%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Energy | Yes | 52%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacturing | Yes | 43%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 34%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 71%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | No | 67%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | No | 54%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China | No | 39%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| America First | No | 30%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Trillion | No | 30%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 27%n=10 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-26FEB05 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP