JD Vance: Remarks, Sep 24, 2025
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during the remarks at Roush Hangar?
Polymarket What will JD Vance say during remarks in North Carolina on September 24?
Markets
45 words · 21 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| God 3+ times | Yes | 60%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Washington / DC | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Charlie / Kirk | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Overtime | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Biden | Yes | 49%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| DC / Capital | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Energy | Yes | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Immigration | Yes | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Jimmy / Kimmel | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Job 15+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Political Violence | Yes | 39%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 39%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Iryna / Zarutska | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Memphis | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Michael / Whatley | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| National Guard | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ted / Budd | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| American Dream | Yes | 37%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Trump / President 20+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Border | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Manufacturing | No | 63%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| China | No | 57%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Thousand / Million / Billion 5+ times | No | 56%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Medicare / Medicaid | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Wage | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Housing | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tax on Tips | No | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Election | No | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| America / American 30+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Autism | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Charlie / Kirk 10+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Chief / Panther | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crap / Shit | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 38%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Drug | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Thom Tillis | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Economy | No | 37%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 32%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Middle Class | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trade | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Antifa | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Gas | No | 25%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 23%n=4 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-25SEP24 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP