JD Vance: Remarks, Aug 21, 2026
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during his remarks in Ohio?
Polymarket What will JD Vance say during remarks in Ohio?
Markets
38 words · 20 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | Yes | 67%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime | Yes | 59%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 55%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | 52%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Investment / Invested | Yes | 50%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Far Left | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Biden | Yes | 48%n=56 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 47%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 46%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat 12+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hell | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Job 8+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Vote | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Border | Yes | 39%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacturing | Yes | 38%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Steel | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 38%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 37%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 27%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 13%n=44 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | No | 59%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | No | 53%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| God 4+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 51%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 46%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Ass | No | 44%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Economy / Economic | No | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 5+ times | No | 43%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Blue | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Cincinnati | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Restaurant | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Wife | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Made in America / American Made | No | 37%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Working Class / Middle Class | No | 32%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Big Beautiful Bill | No | 29%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 19%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 14%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 11%n=23 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-26AUG21 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP