JD Vance: Appearance, Mar 9, 2026
Kalshi Mention: JD Vance at International Association of Fire Fighters
Markets
20 words · 5 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| American Dream | Yes | 70%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 69%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | Yes | 64%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 63%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Sacrifice / Sacrificed / Sacrificing | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Illegal Alien | No | 60%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 56%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | No | 53%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Election | No | 50%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 46%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| New York | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Epic Fury | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Oil | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tariff | No | 33%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| ID / Identification | No | 30%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 28%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Trillion | No | 25%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Working Class / Middle Class | No | 25%n=8 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMENTION-VP26MAR24 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP