JD Vance: Press conference, Feb 26, 2026
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during his press conference to combat fraud?
Polymarket What will JD Vance say in Wisconsin on February 26?
Markets
39 words · 18 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | Yes | 63%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| California | Yes | 62%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | Yes | 58%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | Yes | 53%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 53%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Refund | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Billion | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Minnesota / Minneapolis | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Taxpayer | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crazy | Yes | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Border 4+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Job 7+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Joe Biden | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Prescription Drug | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| State of the Union | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tax 6+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 37%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 73%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Charlie / Kirk | No | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Learing | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Election | No | 51%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Ass | No | 47%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Economy / Economic | No | 45%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Covid / Pandemic | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Daycare / Childcare | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hospice | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pam / Bondi | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Chamber | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| God / Hell 6+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ICE Agent | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Illegal Alien 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Six Seven | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fake News | No | 38%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | 29%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Middle Class / Working Class | No | 27%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Nuclear | No | 26%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 19%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 13%n=15 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-26FEB26 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP