JD Vance: Interview, Jun 8, 2026
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during Fox News: Jesse Watters Primetime?
Markets
18 words · 10 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 58%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | Yes | 57%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| California | Yes | 56%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 56%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 50%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | Yes | 46%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 44%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 43%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 43%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 14%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / DHS | No | 52%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 44%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | No | 42%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 41%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 37%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | No | 29%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 23%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 15%n=24 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-26JUN08 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP