JD Vance: Remarks, Feb 27, 2026
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during his remarks in Wisconsin?
Markets
25 words · 16 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| American Dream | Yes | 72%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 69%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 66%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime | Yes | 66%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | Yes | 64%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | Yes | 63%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 61%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | Yes | 56%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Minnesota / Minneapolis | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Olympic / Olympics | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 52%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| 2028 / Campaign | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Manufacturing | Yes | 44%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 43%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 38%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Economy / Economic | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 54%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Marco / Rubio | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Made in America / American Made | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ID / Identification | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Middle Class | No | 33%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 30%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | 23%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 20%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 12%n=16 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-26FEB27 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP