JD Vance: Remarks, Apr 14, 2026
Kalshi What will JD Vance say at the Turning Point Tour?
Markets
28 words · 16 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| American Dream | Yes | 71%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | Yes | 64%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Usha | Yes | 59%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 57%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 57%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Minnesota / Minneapolis | Yes | 54%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| SAVE Act / SAVE America | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| College / University | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | Yes | 52%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Campaign | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 51%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 46%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 44%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | Yes | 42%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 41%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 39%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacturing | No | 50%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Free Speech / Freedom of Speech | No | 48%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Uranium | No | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 42%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 36%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| ID / Identification | No | 34%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Protest / Protester | No | 31%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 30%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 28%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 27%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Epic Fury | No | 22%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 17%n=19 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-26APR14 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP