JD Vance: Remarks, Sep 14, 2026
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during his remarks in Olathe?
Markets
25 words · 12 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime | Yes | 73%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 65%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 59%n=61 from settlement history | – |
| Invest / Invested / Investment | Yes | 55%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 53%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 53%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacturing | Yes | 49%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 47%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 46%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Small Business | Yes | 45%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| California | Yes | 44%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Barbecue | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Illegal Alien | No | 58%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | No | 58%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Steel | No | 50%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 50%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| American Dream | No | 48%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 47%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Economy / Economic | No | 45%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| 2028 / Campaign | No | 41%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 37%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Working Class / Middle Class | No | 33%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Made in America / American Made | No | 22%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 21%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 19%n=40 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-26SEP14B · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP