JD Vance: Interview, Feb 18, 2026
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during his Fox News interview?
Markets
20 words · 10 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 75%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | Yes | 61%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / Border | Yes | 61%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 61%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Investment / Invested | Yes | 57%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 54%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | Yes | 49%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Marco / Rubio | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Olympic / Olympics | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| China | Yes | 32%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 63%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 62%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Gerrymandering / Gerrymander | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ID / Identification | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Protest / Protester | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Healthcare | No | 39%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 37%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Big Beautiful Bill | No | 32%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | 25%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 14%n=14 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-26FEB18 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP