JD Vance: Remarks, Dec 22, 2025
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during the Turning Point America Fest?
Markets
18 words · 7 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| American Dream | Yes | 67%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 66%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 61%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | Yes | 55%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Cartel / Drug | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| America First | Yes | 37%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / Border Patrol | Yes | 26%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | No | 55%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Investment / Invested | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Middle East | No | 50%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Middle Class / Working Class | No | 40%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Political Violence | No | 38%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 36%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| China | No | 31%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Trillion | No | 28%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Peace | No | 24%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Woke | No | 22%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 16%n=7 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-25DEC22 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP