JD Vance: Remarks, Apr 30, 2026
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during the Turning Point Tour?
Markets
26 words · 0 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| American Dream | No | 73%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | No | 67%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| College / University | No | 61%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 61%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Minnesota / Minneapolis | No | 60%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 58%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Usha | No | 58%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 58%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | No | 57%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Campaign | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China / Chinese | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| SAVE Act / SAVE America | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Election | No | 49%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacturing | No | 45%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | No | 45%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 44%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Uranium | No | 38%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Free Speech / Freedom of Speech | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tariff | No | 34%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| ID / Identification | No | 30%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 29%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 26%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 25%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 25%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Epic Fury | No | 20%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 15%n=21 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-26APR30 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP