JD Vance: Remarks, Aug 24, 2026
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during his remarks in Maine?
Polymarket What will JD Vance say during remarks in Maine?
Markets
34 words · 22 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime | Yes | 64%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 58%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | 57%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Investment / Invested | Yes | 57%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Tax 5+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Steel | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Biden | Yes | 51%n=57 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 51%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 50%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Lunatic / Crazy | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Illegal Alien | Yes | 49%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 10+ times | Yes | 48%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Border 5+ times | Yes | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 45%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacturing | Yes | 44%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 44%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 43%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Family 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Small Business | Yes | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Economy / Economic | Yes | 36%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 33%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| America First | Yes | 14%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | No | 70%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 60%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Lobster | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 47%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Election | No | 42%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Shipbuilding | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Timber / Lumber | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ass | No | 39%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Made in America / American Made | No | 32%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Graham / Platner | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Working Class / Middle Class | No | 29%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 26%n=45 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-26AUG24 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP