JD Vance: Panel, Nov 21, 2025
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during his discussion with Breitbart News?
Markets
20 words · 10 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 68%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | Yes | 58%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| American Dream | Yes | 55%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 55%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | Yes | 52%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 45%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 45%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 42%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 34%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 32%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Investment | No | 52%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| National Guard | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| America First | No | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Middle East | No | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Trillion | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Israel | No | 40%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Tax on Tips | No | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| ICE | No | 29%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 26%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-25NOV21 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP