JD Vance: Press briefing, May 19, 2026
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during the White House Press Briefing?
Markets
27 words · 14 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | Yes | 63%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 58%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 54%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| 2028 / Campaign | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Deal / Settle | Yes | 51%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 51%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 46%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 41%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Marco / Rubio | Yes | 38%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | Yes | 37%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 35%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 17%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | No | 63%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | No | 60%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| California | No | 59%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | No | 48%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Autism / Autistic | No | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Blockade | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ebola | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hantavirus | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hormuz | No | 40%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 32%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 28%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 20%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 19%n=11 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-26MAY19 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP