JD Vance: Speech, Apr 1, 2026
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during the Swearing-In Ceremony Of Colin McDonald?
Markets
18 words · 1 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | Yes | 64%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 70%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| California | No | 58%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Minnesota / Minneapolis | No | 57%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | No | 56%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Medicare / Medicaid | No | 53%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Border | No | 51%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | No | 43%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | No | 43%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Learing | No | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 37%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Daycare | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Newsom | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| TSA | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 35%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 34%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 33%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 19%n=16 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-26APR01 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP