JD Vance: Remarks, Jul 1, 2026
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during his remarks in Virginia Beach?
Markets
18 words · 3 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marine | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| American Dream | Yes | 46%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 45%n=52 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 58%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Space Force | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Oil | No | 46%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| California | No | 46%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 44%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Drone | No | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 42%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 5+ times | No | 41%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 3+ times | No | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Peace | No | 37%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| 2028 / Campaign | No | 35%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 23%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | No | 22%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 17%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 14%n=40 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-26JUL01 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP