JD Vance: Remarks, May 15, 2026
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during the National Peace Officers' Memorial Service?
Markets
14 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 62%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 59%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Border | Yes | 46%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Hero / Heroic | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Safe / Safer / Safety | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Illegal Alien | No | 66%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| American Dream | No | 62%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 60%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | No | 44%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Common Sense | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Defund / Defunded / Defunding | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Terrorism / Terrorist | No | 35%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Drug | No | 27%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-26MAY15 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP