JD Vance: Remarks, Sep 21, 2025
Kalshi What Will JD Vance Say During The Charlie Kirk Memorial?
Markets
27 words · 5 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Debate | Yes | 52%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Faith | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| God | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| President | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Turning Point | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Democrat | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Election | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Political Violence | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| American Dream | No | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Antifa | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Assassinated | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| College / Campus | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Constitution | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| FBI | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Heaven | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Horrific | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Radical Left | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Republican | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Roof | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Student | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| TikTok | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Transgender | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Unite | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Youth | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fake News | No | 42%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Free Speech | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-25SEP21 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP