JD Vance: Remarks, May 18, 2026
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during his remarks at Milbank Manufacturing Company?
Markets
26 words · 12 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 66%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Minnesota / Minneapolis | Yes | 65%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 63%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | Yes | 61%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | Yes | 58%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| American Dream | Yes | 57%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 56%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 54%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Campaign | Yes | 45%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 45%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacturing | Yes | 42%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| SAVE Act / SAVE America | Yes | 32%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Election | No | 47%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Usha | No | 43%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | No | 35%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 34%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 32%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Uranium | No | 27%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | No | 24%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| ID / Identification | No | 22%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Free Speech / Freedom of Speech | No | 20%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 19%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 19%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 18%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Epic Fury | No | 15%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 12%n=25 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-26MAY18 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP