JD Vance: Speech, Jan 24, 2026
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during his remarks at March for Life?
Markets
17 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 71%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 67%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 61%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Family | Yes | 59%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Abortion | Yes | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Adopted / Adoption | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Supreme Court | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Unborn | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Greenland | No | 61%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | No | 57%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Pregnant / Pregnancy | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| National Security | No | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Pro Choice | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Roe / Wade | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Terrorist / Narcoterrorist | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| America First | No | 34%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 17%n=12 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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