JD Vance: Interview, Aug 8, 2026
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during Fox News: Saturday in America?
Markets
25 words · 9 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 66%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| SAVE Act / SAVE America Act | Yes | 55%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | Yes | 53%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 53%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 52%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 49%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | Yes | 35%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 33%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 30%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | No | 63%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Taxpayer | No | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Medicare / Medicaid | No | 52%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | No | 51%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Minnesota / Minneapolis | No | 48%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 42%n=55 from settlement history | – |
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | No | 39%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Election | No | 36%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 35%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Constitution / Constitutional | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 34%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| 2028 / Campaign | No | 31%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 31%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 19%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender / Trans | No | 19%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 16%n=33 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-26AUG08 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP