JD Vance: Remarks, Apr 7, 2026
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during his remarks on U.S.-Hungary Relations?
Polymarket What will JD Vance say during bilateral events with Orbán?
Markets
33 words · 13 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| God 3+ times | Yes | 70%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | 56%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 50%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Brussels | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Democracy | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Russia / Russian | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Election 4+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hungary / Hungarian 8+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil 2+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Russia / Ukraine 6+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Viktor / Orbán 4+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ukraine / Ukrainian | Yes | 36%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 32%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 67%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Crazy | No | 65%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 64%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | No | 61%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | No | 43%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Deal / Settle | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| F-15 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| NASA / Moon | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| NATO | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rescue / Rescued | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Biden 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| EU / European Union | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Slovakia | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | No | 39%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Rigged | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Venezuela | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 31%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Gas / Gasoline | No | 27%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 26%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 14%n=17 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-26APR07B · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP