JD Vance: Remarks, Mar 17, 2026
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during his St. Patrick's Day breakfast?
Markets
13 words · 3 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Usha | Yes | 52%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Saint Patrick Day / Saint Patrick's Day | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Shamrock | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| American Dream | No | 77%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 74%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 69%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 60%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 51%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Gold | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iran | No | 48%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Luck / Lucky | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff | No | 33%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 17%n=13 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMENTION-JD26MAR17 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP