JD Vance: Interview, Jun 14, 2026
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during CBS Sunday Morning?
Markets
17 words · 1 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Terrorist / Terrorism | Yes | 38%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 61%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | No | 61%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 60%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | No | 58%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| 2028 / Campaign | No | 58%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 54%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Marco / Rubio | No | 45%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 40%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Hillbilly / Elegy | No | 37%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 35%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 34%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | No | 25%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 21%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 21%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 14%n=25 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-26JUN14 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP