JD Vance: Interview, Apr 13, 2026
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during his Fox News interview?
Markets
19 words · 12 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Terrorist / Terrorism | Yes | 45%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Settle / Deal | Yes | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Jared / Kushner | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Orban | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pakistan | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pope | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Steve / Witkoff | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil | Yes | 39%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Uranium | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hormuz | Yes | 30%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 64%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 44%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| 21 Hour | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Qatar | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 39%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Hegseth | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 31%n=8 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-26APR13 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP