JD Vance: Press conference, May 13, 2026
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during his Press Conference on Anti-Fraud Initiatives?
Markets
19 words · 9 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota / Minneapolis | Yes | 56%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 52%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| California | Yes | 49%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Medicare / Medicaid | Yes | 47%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 46%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 39%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hospice | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Newsom | Yes | 33%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | No | 56%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Border | No | 49%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | No | 43%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat 3+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| PPP / Paycheck Protection Program | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Daycare / Childcare | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Learing | No | 34%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 29%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 26%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 25%n=23 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-26MAY13 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP