JD Vance: Remarks, Mar 27, 2026
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during his Fraud Meeting?
Markets
20 words · 5 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 65%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Minnesota / Minneapolis | Yes | 54%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | Yes | 52%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Medicare / Medicaid | Yes | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Autism | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| California | No | 66%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Border | No | 63%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | No | 49%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | No | 49%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Learing | No | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Newsom | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| PPP / Paycheck Protection Program | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| TSA | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 39%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 38%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 37%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Daycare | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 33%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 15%n=15 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-26MAR27 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP